More Water Diplomacy

Thirty-one senior water professionals from 17 countries attended the recent Water Diplomacy Workshop sponsored by Tufts University and MIT. We heard about cross-border water disputes happening all over the world -- conflicts not just between countries, but between parts of the same country. [Stories about all these disputes will soon be available in something called the Aquapedia -- a global wiki that invites everyone involved in water disputes to describe them using a simple pre-made, easy-to-complete template. The hope is that ideas and lessons gathered in one place will be helpful elsewhere.]

There's a lot written about water management, mostly from an engineering perspective. There's not so much written from a negotiation standpoint. And, there's precious little that merges the two. The Water Diplomacy Framework begins with a series of assumptions about societal, political and natural forces including water supply, water demand, the costs of new infrastructure, levels of economic development, governance arrangements, cultural norms, and public participation traditions. The Workshop teaches the participants to anticipate the complex interactions among these “nodes” using tailored role-play simulations.

Four key assumptions were at the heart of the train-the-trainer program (that will be offered again in June 2012):

Water is a not a fixed resource: Traditionally, water has been managed as if it were a fixed or a scarce resource -- allocating gains to some and losses to others. But when viewed properly, water can be an expandable resource, it can even be the key to peace-building rather than warfare. The key is to pool all available technical knowledge (about desalination or recycling, for instance) and convince the parties to engage in joint problem-solving. Also, virtual water (i.e. water embedded in wasteful methods of agricultural and industrial production) can be managed more creatively to relieve water shortages. Water conflicts are triggered when the parties fail to think about water as an expandable resource.

Water networks are open not closed: Traditional “systems engineering” represents the interconnections among political, social and natural nodes as if they are neatly bounded. This is rarely the case. Also, this approach only works when cause-effect relationships among the nodes are well understood and complexity can be minimized. In most boundary crossing situations, however, water network boundaries are wide open and relationships among the nodes are extremely complex.

Water network management must take account of uncertainty: Resource managers have tried for many years to model water systems. Once they have a model, they make a forecast. However, in the complex world of water networks, there is too much uncertainty to make such forecasts with any confidence. The emergence of climate change, for example, has already altered rainfall patterns, storm intensity and the height of the oceans in completely unpredictable ways. There are tools for managing resources in the face of uncertainty, but these are quite different from the usual modeling and forecasting tools.

The management of water network needs to be adaptive and reflect a “value- creating” approach to negotiation: The Water Diplomacy Framework urges political leaders to ensure that appropriate representatives of all relevant stakeholders are involved in decisions that affect them. Negotiations among these actors should use value- creating techniques rather than positional bargaining. This requires linking decisions about water to other things (like economic development, food production and energy efficiency).

The Water Diplomacy Framework assumes the future is not knowable (or easily estimated). Therefore, a step-by- step approach, including a major investment in monitoring and re-evaluation is required.

If you want to join the Water Diplomacy network, check out www.waterdiplomacy.org. In a few weeks, you’ll be able to interact on line with the participants at the recent Workshop.

Water Diplomacy

Managing the flow of water, as a river moves through several countries or across sub-state boundaries, can be extremely difficult. If the upstream riparians divert too much, the downstream countries are left empty-handed. If the upstream users don't maintain water quality, the downstream users pay a terrible price. Part of the problem stems from the fact that water users are likely to have different priorities and plans. The upstream countries may want to dam the water to generate electricity, or divert it for agricultural purposes. Some may be confronted with rapid population growth or a burgeoning resource extraction industry that demand more water than they have used in the past. Climate change may alter patterns of rainfall, cause temporary drought, increase storm intensification, lead to sea level rise, or result in saltwater intrusion into freshwater system. All of these things will change the pattern of water availability and quality. So, there are societal forces (politics, economics and culture) and natural forces (water quantity, water quality and ecosystems) all of which have to be managed at the same time.

We think of these six elements and the way they are configured as interlocking networks. There are three things about these networks that many water system managers get wrong much of the time. First, they act as if these networks can be bounded or closed. That is, they formulate agreements or laws that prescribe who the users are, which elements will be included and excluded and what the boundaries will be. The fact is, water networks can and should not be circumscribed in this way. New users and uses may appear at any time. Distant ecological and economic forces may need to be taken into account. Water networks are open, not closed (which makes them much harder to manage). Even when treaties or laws specify who has the final say, other stakeholders will do what they need to do to insert themselves into the official decision-making process. Water rights or battles over control of water systems have been the cause of war for centuries. Second, water system managers (and the politicians to whom they report) may try to set operating rules aimed at managing a river segment in a way that makes sense on an average day, in an average year or when the system is at a stable or steady state. But water systems rarely, if ever, remain in a stable state. They are subject to all kinds of climatic, economic and demographic pushes and pulls. If the "rules of the game" (particularly the allocation rights of different users and uses) are set at one level, but the reality is something else all together, there will be serious conflicts. The rules of the game often need to be changed or at least adjusted. Unfortunately, many of the legal regimes in place all over the world are too rigid to accommodate such change. Third, most water system managers act as if water is a limited resource (even as they waste it!) and that decisions about who gets water and how it may be used are zero-sum decisions. But, that's not always true. Sometimes water can be recycled or re-used a second time for a second purpose if the right kind of infrastructure is put in place and cooperative administrative arrangements are maintained. Shifting away from wasteful practices is the same as adding additional water supplies. The invention of new technologies or a shift to less wasteful practices can not only save water, but multiply its usefulness. So, water supplies are not actually limited and the smart management of water networks can create the equivalent of new supplies. The issue is how to move away from zero-sum confrontations to collaborative informal problem-solving that can create "water gains."

Water networks have multiple nodes or dimensions. Some of these nodes are natural and some are made by people. Nodes may be located in a single place or be part of a far-reaching global (ecological, economic or institutional) network. Some nodes may have great cultural significance. Effective management of water networks requires negotiation among and on behalf of all these different nodes. Unfortunately, most water system managers do not have the skills in engineering design, environmental science, and negotiation to do this. Historically, the way most water professionals have been trained emphasizes only one or two of these disciplines or dimensions.

In June, my colleague Shafiqul Islam at Tufts University, and I will offer a one week, interdisciplinary train-the-trainer program called The Water Diplomacy Workshop (WDW). You can read more about it at www.waterdiplomacy.org. Our goal is to build an international network of water professionals who share a commitment to a mutual gains approach to water network negotiation and who are ready and able to teach this approach to others. WDW meets in Boston from June 13, 2011 - June 17, 2011. If you are interested, you can apply on line.